White House Confirms No October Inflation Data Release

The White House announced that there will likely be no release of inflation data in October due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, marking a historical first for a data report spanning over a century. The shutdown, now in its 24th day, has halted most economic data collection across federal agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), raising concerns about the impact on economic surveillance.

In a statement, the White House indicated that the ongoing furloughs of approximately 700,000 federal workers have impeded data collection efforts. Only limited staff were recalled to process the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, which was released to assist the Social Security Administration in calculating adjustments for beneficiaries. Analysts suggest the October report will likely be missed entirely as BLS personnel are unable to gather the necessary data.

Erica Groshen, a former BLS commissioner, highlighted the challenges, stating that normally data collection would have started well before the month. Some economic experts argue that producing data based on limited inputs would compromise the accuracy of the report. Concerns over the shutdown’s extensive nature contrast with the previous shutdown from December 2018 to January 2019, during which many reports were still generated.

Despite the worries, some economists believe the delay in publishing inflation data, while inconvenient, will not lead to catastrophic economic consequences. Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered, noted that U.S. economic data already has many flaws, and a gap in reporting is manageable when not accompanied by a financial crisis.

The suspension of inflation data collection exemplifies the broader repercussions of the government shutdown, with significant implications for economic monitoring. The BLS typically relies on a rolling basis to collect data throughout the month, making timely reporting particularly challenging without field staff on duty.